Further evidence of the Bizarro World we live in (not that
we need more proof), the financial markets needed a weak jobs number – less
than 250,000 new jobs – so the Fed would keep adding monetary crack to the addicted
system. But it didn’t want a number that was too weak (below 100,000)
because there was worry of an economic contraction.
Amazingly, this is exactly what the markets got: A jobs picture that has changed little. Expect Treasuries to rally because the Fed will keep buying them, Which will cause mortgage rates to drop back down as the 10 year yields fall somewhere in the 1.65% - 1.85% range and expect the stock market to rebound as people sound the “all clear” for the same reason.
Amazingly, this is exactly what the markets got: A jobs picture that has changed little. Expect Treasuries to rally because the Fed will keep buying them, Which will cause mortgage rates to drop back down as the 10 year yields fall somewhere in the 1.65% - 1.85% range and expect the stock market to rebound as people sound the “all clear” for the same reason.
It’s a Bizarro World, where we need to insure long-term money printing
to keep both stocks and bonds at amazingly high levels.
But let’s
dig a little deeper into the unemployment numbers. The Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) guessed that uncounted small businesses created 205,000
new jobs in this latest report. That means the actual count of jobs was -30,000
(175,000 reported less 205,000 guesstimated). I just don’t get it. Why does
this number not attract more attention? With all the regulatory issues facing
small businesses, along with the impending Affordable Care Act requirements,
there is no question that the rate of small business creation has fallen off a
cliff. The Census Bureau recently confirmed this reality, yet the BLS assumes
almost a quarter of a million new jobs in one month from uncounted start-ups,
and everyone goes along with it?
We’ve really taken a vacation from economic reality at this point. Remember that, last month, the BLS assumed 193,000 new jobs from this area, which means, in the last two months, they have assumed 398,000 new jobs from small businesses and reported 317,000 new jobs overall. Does this sound like a good deal?
We’ve really taken a vacation from economic reality at this point. Remember that, last month, the BLS assumed 193,000 new jobs from this area, which means, in the last two months, they have assumed 398,000 new jobs from small businesses and reported 317,000 new jobs overall. Does this sound like a good deal?
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